Was Liverpool the turning point in the Scottish election?

   

If Labour lost the election in a Glasgow sandwich bar, history may well show the SNP won it in a converted cotton mill in Liverpool. This is not to ignore the impressive, upbeat manifesto launch, the professionalism of the campaign team or the months of hard work by thousands of activists. All these elements are crucial. But there has to be a tipping point and Alex Salmond’s performance on Question Time from Liverpool’s Contemporary Urban Centre might well be that moment.

The First Minister was a voice of clarity and morality on the show and put the three other politicians – Peter Hain, Chris Huhne and Michael Howard in the shade. His warning to the people of England that Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Tories were all threatening their National Health Service got the most enthusiastic audience reaction of the night. It has been chosen as the programme highlight on the BBC Question Time website.

The Lockerbie question (a pre-requisite it seems when SNP politicians appear on network programmes) failed to inflict a blow – quite the opposite. The audience applause was spontaneous and enthusiastic when he condemned all the other parties for doing oil deals with Libya and selling weapons to Colonel Gaddafi.

Today's Scotland on Sunday You Gov Poll shows the SNP three points ahead of Labour in the constituency and two points ahead on the list. Some commentators have suggested this reflects the favourable Question Time fallout. However, the poll’s research was conducted on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday last week so it will underestimate the positive effect of both the programme and the manifesto launch which both took place on Thursday.

Scotland on Sunday writers Eddie Barnes and Tom Peterkin were left in no doubt about the Dimbleby effect when they spoke to the well educated and progressive voters of Glasgow’s Byres Road – in the marginal Kelvin constituency the SNP hope to take off Labour. “Quite soon, after just a handful of conversations, some regular themes emerge. Salmond is seen as having done a good job. “Did you see him on Question Time? He wiped the floor with ‘em!” says one West End trendy, wrapped in his Palestinian keffiyeh.”

These sentiments are reflected in the Scotland on Sunday poll questions about leadership, as 42% thought Salmond would make the best First Minister – three times more than Iain Gray on 14%. When the Tory and Lib Dem leaders were taken out, 57% chose Salmond in a straight choice with Gray.

The newspaper also asked about the personal qualities of each man. A massive 60% agreed that Salmond “stands up for Scotland”  compared to 15% for Gray.  Twice as many thought Salmond was “intelligent” - 40% compared to 18% for Gray. The personality trait where Gray scored highest was “weak”. This was Salmond’s lowest score. But perhaps most revealingly, one in three had no opinion of Gray compared to only one in ten for the First Minister.

It's not just about popularity. Lots of folk like Salmond, but not everyone. However even those who don’t warm to him personally, credit him with strong leadership skills. A stonking majority believe he uses these personal qualities to fight Scotland's corner. This completely undermines a key Labour campaign message. Few Scots believe that Iain Gray, who ran away from protestors and then made a cringe-inducing comment about the killing fields of Cambodia, is a strong leader who can speak for them.

This marks a sea-change in political attitudes.  People are proud of Alex Salmond. They like having a First Minister who “wipes the floor” with national politicians on peak time network telly. They are also responding to the very positive message of the SNP, a party which is in business for one reason only – to make Scotland more successful. The party manifesto cover has a single quote from Salmond: “Scotland is on a journey and the path ahead is a bright one. Now is the time for Scotland to keep moving forward.”

This is a view shared by those who are not natural SNP supporters, but who care about the country and fear that a Gray government will return us to the "we're all a bit rubbish" mentality that Labour encourage in Scotland - see Alex Massie in The Spectator..

Kenny Farquharson also reflects the new mood in his column today "Will hope or fear decide the election?" Kenny points out that while Barack Obama and Bill Clinton both won elections with optimistic campaigns “this is Scotland…and we can be grumpy bastards”. In the past, he says, Scotland has voted out of fear and this is what Labour appeal to with their “now the Tories are back” approach. The SNP, by contrast, offer real hope with their commitment to 100% renewable energy generation by 2020 and modern attractive personalities like Alan Cumming and Kick Ass creator Mark Millar. Kenny says  the SNP campaign “flatters Scots sense of themselves as a gallus nation that can thrive and prosper, even under darkening skies.” That suggests a country that places hope before fear. So Alex is correct, the path ahead is a bright one. 

And on that note let me end by paying tribute to the people of Liverpool and the spirit of optimism, with one of the most feel good songs to come out of that city.

 

 

Comments

[Jo]

Let's be thankful Salmond is too experienced and mature a politician himself to be claiming that he's won it yet.

[peter]

And cop this if you haven't already:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2011/apr/18/why-is-the-sun-backing-alex-salmond

[peter]

I think you will find Joan, The Scum backed Tony Blair only when it was overwhelmingly obvious that he was going to win the '97 election and then withdrew that support when Gordon Brown became leader. With Rupert, everything is about the personal it seems.

Also, you will find The Scum does not back any of the issues you do - it is anti-independence, pro-Trident, pro-war (especially Iraq) and pro-nuclear.

GOTCHA! As one august journal once stated.

Personally, I never wanted the support of The Scum, was pleased when they finally fell away to embrace Cameron and the Tories - and you will be too before much longer.

[Joan]

@peter macdonald well The Sun backed Labour for a long time Peter and you didn't seem to object then. I am happy to accept any endorsement that doesn't compromise us - the SNP remains pro-independence, anti Trident, anti war and anti nuclear - a party for the vulnerable and the aspirational too. We have a positive vision for the country. Lastly, The Sun like backing winners so without getting complacent, I see this as a good omen, though it will not in itself win the election - that will take continuing professionalism and hard work

[Peter MacDonald]

The "Scum" backs The Alex Salmond Party!

As a journalist and candidate, I'm sure you are swelling with all the page 3 pride you can muster.

Good luck with that one.

[Mogreb El Acksa]

Scottish Republic Re: The North of England joining an independent Scotland,

I used to work in an engineering Company in the North of England, the blokes knew I was SNP often i was told that if we managed to get independence that they would like to join us, I'm all for it they promised they'd bring their North Sea gas fields with them, plus our part of the North Sea that Henry Mcleish gave to England when he was an MP.

Saor Alba

[Mark McCann]

Great article, not sure this is the tipping point, "a week is a log time" etc. Hope your as good an MSP as you are a journo Joan.
PS the Massie/Spectator link is broken.

[Dave McEwan Hill]

Anent the post from Scottish Republic I am told tha the the Sunday Express carries details of a poll in Berwick showing over 60% of the inhabitants want ing to (re)join Scotland

[Scottish republic]

Alec is the best politician in the world today, he wiped the floor with three Brit nat stoooges (and that woman who was there, her name I don't remember and her purpose was obscure).

The Liverpudlians gave us The Beatles and are a nice bunch.

It was crystal clear on their faces that they wished they had Salmond fighting their fights for them.

I for one would be very happy to invite Liverpool to become part of a Scottish nation and the North of England for that matter. Leave all the Torys to their natural habitat. They can screw each other over like that and see how it feels.

[Allan Christie]

Salmond was excellent on QT and for once I'm glad the Lockerbie question came up because Salmond just put the record strait and let the people in England know who the real villains were, ie Blair and Tory toffs.

Alex Salmond was very well received by the audience and they seemed to like him a lot. Maybe the SNP should field candidates in Liverpool!!!

I can't think of one British politician who comes anywhere near Salmonds debating skills, not even William Hague who I think is the strongest parliamentarian in Westminster.