An IPSOS MORI Poll in today's Times has the SNP surging ahead of Labour.
Astute commentators always predicted the Holyrood race would be closer than other recent polls predicted. However nobody could have thought it would happen so early in the campaign.
After the blip of the UK General Election, voters are beginning to link the issues they care about with what the parties offer. Earlier polls such this one for BBC Scotland last October showed public priorities - eg ring-fencing health, freezing council tax, and freezing wages in the public sector reflected SNP policy. Now Salmond's government is benefitting from that as minds concentrate on the choices on offer.
Reflecting on this, John Curtice, Politics Professor at Strathclyde University told The Scotsman: "It may be that now the Holyrood election is coming into view, people are looking at what the parties are offering, rather than being mesmerised by what is happening south of the Border."
That can only intensify as May draws closer. The focus in the budget on apprenticeships for young people has stolen Labour's thunder and that party's decision to vote against its own key demand has lead normally favourable observers to queston its credibility. Cracks are appearing. It is becoming apparent that SNP infrastructure spending - fast tracked to boost recovery - has slowed the effects of the recesson in Scotland. If that is what can be achieved with good management, what might we gain from greater economic power?
That's before we even talk about the quality of potential First Ministers and front bench teams. Certainly it livens up the election, even if you are non-aligned - see Alex Massie's post in The Spectator.
The bare figures are as follows
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For more go to The Times, which is subscription only online or in print. A detailed SNP response is here
Can anyone tell me why the media stays so pro Brit nat?
We had the Sun on our side for a moment (til Blair did a deal with Murdoch) but the press and media stays Brit nat through and through, why?
Posted by: Scottish republic | February 21, 2011 at 09:47 PM
I don't think if the race is tight that Labour would be stupid enough to put Gray up against Salmond but they are pretty stupid, so you never know.
It would be funny though if it were just the SNP, the tories, the Greens and the Libs, all the parties taking the p**h out of Gray in his absence would be hilarious. So maybe he will be forced to show his face.
Posted by: Scottish republic | February 20, 2011 at 06:29 PM
Good luuck in May Joan, we're lucky to have you as a candidate.
Posted by: Scottish republic | February 20, 2011 at 11:47 AM
Sent my first ever political donation today.
It was equivalent to 1/4 of a CarryFreedom bike trailer but I think it's worth it.
I'd still quite like a trailer though.
http://www.carryfreedom.com/
Posted by: wee folding bike | February 16, 2011 at 11:13 PM
"The focus in the budget on apprenticeships for young people has stolen Labour's thunder and that party's decision to vote against its own key demand has lead normally favourable observers to queston its credibility."
Labour have no credibility on this matter!
Posted by: Moujick | February 16, 2011 at 10:56 PM
Yes Joan - surely were going to have a leaders debate as per Westminster's?
Three debates over three weeks etc; purely for transmission in Scotland, on Scottish affairs for Scotland's Parliamentary election.
Posted by: Crinkly & Ragged Arsed Philosophers | February 16, 2011 at 08:41 PM
I think a leaders debate is very unlikely. The Newsnicht format of a Labour spokesperson in the studio and an SNP representative on a TV monitor with a background of the good ship Discovery is a proven reasonably safe format.
Should the BBC really become concerned for Labour over a live debate pre-recording "a set of questions" to the SNP also works well, with Labour live in the studio responding to the pre-recorded SNP.
Posted by: Gavin C Barrie | February 16, 2011 at 01:18 PM
certainly no room for complacency. The real significance of the poll I is that it reflects the fact that since the start of the year we are getting some clear messages across, and that is starting to work. Our challenge was to move the agenda back to Scotland. That was beginning to happen but this poll will really hasten that, which in turn benefits us because as soon as people look at what is best for Scotland, we come out top. The electorate is not stupid and can tell that we have done a good jobs on the stuff that mattters. But I predict our opponents could turn even nastier now so we need to stay focussed and positive and keep thinking of new ways to dominate the debate between now and May
Posted by: joanmcalpine | February 16, 2011 at 12:31 PM
Is it worth mentioning that Scottish unemployment has also gone down, completely the opposite trend to the rest of the UK?
http://tinyurl.com/66bl4zm
These two events have got to be good news for the SNP.
Liked your piece on the front cover of the Scots Independent by the way.
Posted by: douglas clark | February 16, 2011 at 12:05 PM
Let's not get too excited. This doesn't surprise me though as not one of my friends has said they would change their vote. In fact we very nearly have the only labour voter coming round to our views.
Posted by: Subrosa | February 16, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Very promising and we've not even had the leaders debates yet ;-)
Posted by: Manny | February 16, 2011 at 09:11 AM