Is this the moment when Labour lost the Scottish election?

Doorstep canvassing has already indicated that Iain Gray's "flight into Subway" was enormously damaging to the Labour campaign. This suspicion is confirmed in a new YouGov Poll that shows the SNP surging ahead of Labour. This poll is particularly significant for a number of reasons. It was conducted, in part, before the SNP manifesto launch had time to make an impact. The widely praised launch event was regarded as professional, optimistic and dynamic.

 

While a Panelbase poll in the Sunday Times two weeks ago put the SNP
ahead, this is the first YouGov poll to show an SNP lead in both the
constituency and regional list votes since September 2009.  The last
YouGov poll, In the Scotsman last month, put the SNP ahead by one point in
the constituency vote, but behind Labour by 7 points in the regional list. The new poll clearly shows that Scottish voters are concentrating on the question of leadership and concluding that Salmond and his team the best for the job.

Following the launch of the SNP’s “Alex Salmond for First Minister”
campaign for the list vote, there has been a 9-point shift in favour of
the SNP in today’s YouGov poll – underlining the strength of this message.
And who can blame voters after the Subway incident? Gray's complete inability to engage with ordinary people reflects very badly on Labour. Gray's claims to "stand up to the Tories" are completely undermined by the footage of him running scared from a few protestors. By contrast, Salmond met the same protesters a few days later face-to-face. He agreed to address their concerns which he decribed as "not unreasonable".

The gap between Alex Salmond and Labour’s Iain Gray in terms
of who would be best First Minister has grown by two-thirds since last
month’s YouGov poll – the previous gap of 15 points is now a massive 25
points.

Effectively this means the gap between Alex Salmond and Iain Gray in terms of who would be best First Minister has grown by two-thirds in less than a month, to a
chasm of 25 points.”

NOTE:

The YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday was sampled from 13-15 April among
1,135 adults.

The results are (changes from last month’s YouGov/Scotsman poll, sampled
from 25-28 March, in brackets):

CONSTITUENCY VOTE
SNP: 40% (n/c)
Lab: 37% (-2)
Con: 11% (n/c)
Lib Dem: 8% (+3)
Other: 4%

REGIONAL LIST VOTE
SNP: 35% (+3)
Lab: 33% (-6)
Con: 12% (n/c)
Lib Dem: 7% (+2)
Green: 6%
Other: 7%

SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT SEATS PROJECTION
SNP: 55
Lab: 49
Con: 14
Lib Dem: 6
Green: 5

BEST FIRST MINISTER
Alex Salmond: 52% (+4)
Iain Gray: 27% (-6)

Comments

[Patricia Mcarthur]

My mother was one of those protesters, she was there to protest about the closure of my 32 yr. old sister’s day centre, my sister has downs syndrome. Her day centre is getting bulldozed to make way for a bus park for the common wealth games.
The carers and users of the day centre where promised a like for like new build as part of the commonwealth legacy, now there being told there shall be no centre and as of yet have nowhere for the users of the centre to go. Their idea of putting my sister and the rest of the users into community centres is unacceptable, they will not have anywhere that is specifically for them, and in the summer holidays when most community centres run play schemes, then there will be nowhere for these adults to go to get out of the way of the children. This doesn't bode well for the children or the day centre users.
So this Mr Gray ran away from carers who are worried not only for the wellbeing of the people they care for, but also their own wellbeing; my mother has been a full time mother for 42 yrs. now. The first ten to me and my other sister and the last 32 as a full time carer and mother to my youngest sister.
But we're ok Mr Gray has lived through worse!!!

[Scottish republic]

"""""""not a bloody coward!!""""""

Oh come now, he did stroll across the killing fields and... who cares?

Sounds ridiculous comparing genocide to a couple of tax cuts protestors.

If it looks like a duck... quack quack.

[Scottish republic]

I think this is appropriate
[u]
[b]
Visage Paroles - Fade To Grey[/b][/u]

Devenions gris
Devenions gris

One man on a lonely platform
One case sitting by his side
Two eyes staring cold and silent
Show fear as he turns to hide

Aaah, we fade to grey (fade to grey)
Aaah, we fade to grey (fade to grey)

Un homme dans une gare isolée
Une valise a ses cotés
Des yeux fixes et froids
Montre de la peur lorsqu'il
Se tourne pour se cacher

Aaah, we fade to grey (fade to grey)
Aaah, we fade to grey (fade to grey)

Sent la pluie comme un été Anglais
Entends les notes d'une chanson lointaine
Sortant de derriere d'un poster
Espérant que la vie ne fut aussi longue

Aaah, we fade to grey (fade to grey)
Aaah, we fade to grey (fade to grey)

Feel the rain like an English summer
Hear the notes from a distant song
Stepping out from a back shop poster
Wishing life wouldn't be so long

Devenir gris

http://www.deezer.com/fr/#music/visage

[Scottish republic]

The poll says NO CHANGE but as far as I remember the SNP and Labour were about neck and neck on 37%, not 40%.

[Colin]

Craig: Does he? When? It looks like he's forced to talk to them a bit once they've cornered him in the shop, but not before.

Anyway, amusing though all this is, it'd be a bit silly if the election turned on it, surely?

[Eternal Hope]

This version is so much more fun....
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S67QyGVHALk&feature=youtube_gdata_player

[Craig McGill]

In fairness to IG, he does try to chat to some of them but is quickly moved on.

[Allan Christie]

Iain Gray and the infamous Subway gate was a PR disaster for him and his party. On policy Gray tried to match Salmond, on personality..need I say more?

When Gray ran away from a few lighthearted protesters, Salmond held a meeting with them. The country needs strong leadership, not a bloody coward!!